Midterm Meltdown - Republican Tsunami

Gallup released polling that indicated the Republicans hold a 10 point advantage over the Democrats in the midterm election.  The generic polling and the largest ever spread in polling by Gallup suggests a major meltdown for the Democrats.  However, what is more telling in the numbers is the swiftness in the change of views by the electorate.  There are a number of reasons for this change and all of them point to greater activism by the electorate and the instantaneous capabilities of the internet in disseminating information.

The calculus of the Democrats in opposing the American people was that any change in political attitude would be blunted by an expected upturn in the economy and the ensuing benefits of job creation by the stimulus.  The stimulus package was passed along party lines without consideration for the Republican position in the matter and has now clearly been demonstrated, without any basis for the expected success.  In fact, the conjunction of the new activism generated through the Tea Party movement and the recognition by conservatives that they must do more than "write checks" has fundamentally changed the political environment for the foreseeable future.  I have argued that people are now off the couch and in the streets.

However, without the social networking tools, shareware, low cost web-based tools and the sheer energy of the conservative movement - read Tea Party - this awakening would likely not have pivoted so quickly.  The Tea Party movement has demonstrated its capacity to organize, hold major rallies, support candidates, get out the vote and sustain interest over the last twenty months.  And with the challenges facing America, it is unlikely to wane over the next several election cycles.  This is due to the fact that these leaders, developing and growing in their capabilities and sophistication, are networked and organized in a fashion that would have been previously impossible without the internet.

This is not to say that the internet is the reason for success of the movement, however, it engenders the truly democratic processes of activism that would have been impossible through any other vehicle.  Could the Tea Party have created the organizational structure and communication vehicle with simple snail-mail, radio, TV or even email?  Hardly likely.  The time lag in communications, the cost and the overall control by the left would have diminished the effort.

When looking at any initiative, be it business, politics or social movement, two elements must be present.  Does the organizing effort have the necessary and sufficient capacity to execute its vision?  In the vernacular of marketing, necessary and sufficient capacity to serve. The Tea Party movement certainly had the vision for its actions, however, no one group had major funding and so the viral element of the movement would have been impossible through the aforementioned technologies.  No, in fact, the Tea Party movement was able to accomplish so much in so little time because it had the necessary infrastructure - the internet - and the capacity - the leadership and activists - to develop and deploy resources throughout the country.

And what is uniquely "Tea Party" about this action is the fact that it originated from a bottom up process of "grass roots" activists.  Most of these activists had never even participated in the political process and many had always thought it was someone else's responsibility.  However, they now find themselves at the nexus of a movement that is poorly understood by the left and dismissed by the mainstream party machines.  It functions more as a rogue state rather than a chummy club.  And it is this very nature of perceived "anarchy" that gives power to the movement.  The reality is that while the Tea Party movement has focused on key fiscal issues and the Constitution, it is also comprised of a large degree of social conservatives who view their role in society as a positive and powerful responsibility.

Conservatives try to build up rather than tear down.  They look at the world, our society and their community as something worth fighting for, not against.  And they see any infringement on that worldview as being out of step with their aspirations.  And it is this emotional energy which has propelled the movement to center stage!  And in considering these facts we can see that this emotional energy is fully released through the medium of the internet and the technologies it puts in the hands of these activists.  So whether or not Obama watches the Glenn Beck rally or the administration dismisses his questionable positions on faith, the war or America generally, they have the power to influence the debate.

And this is where we begin to realize that the new conservative movement is not a party-based movement but driven by people who will associate with the party that represents their worldview.  For now, that is Republicans.  However, this same energy and innovation will turn on a dime should they not govern as they purport to in context of their representations during their campaigns.  The tsunami that is expected in November is controlled by these same activists and, unlike nature's indiscriminate destruction, is capable of rising up at any time to wash away those who would rule with the same impunity as the Democrats now in power.

 

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