It's Conservatives Stupid - Why the Forty Year Reign Fizzled
Wow, what a night! It was historic in any way you measure the outcome. And we're still not done with a number of races too close to call and late ballots influencing others. To be sure, the national picture was remarkable. With a pickup of five senate seats, sixty house seats, eleven governorships and over five hundred state legislative seats, the Republican tsunami was complete. In fact, Republicans took control of at least eighteen state chambers making the event even more compelling. While all of the interest was on the balance of power in the House and Senate, the seismic shift at the state level will reverberate for the next ten years due to redistricting in 2011.
It seems that just a short time ago, James Carville was predicting a rule by the Democrats of forty years! While he might have been using the number forty in biblical context, forty being used to represent enlarged dominion and extended rule, it also represents probation, trial and chastisement. In either case, he was off about thirty-eight years.
And like Moses, who disobeyed God and never entered the promised land, the Democrats disobeyed the will of the people. In this context, Carville might be better served writing his new book on wandering in the desert!
No, the people of America made a decision last night. They got back to their conservative roots and the heartland spoke. And that voice was even heard in New England and New York with significant pickups there as well. Only California seems to be going back to the future with the election of Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown and the return of Barbara "I've worked hard for the title" Boxer to the Senate. The nation will need to be mindful of the fact that California, with its fourteen percent unemployment and $10 billion dollar debt, will likely come to DC begging for a bail out! We must say no - tough love for the liberal mind - but the only correct outcome while other states must maintain their fiscal discipline.
Much has been made of the whipsaw effect of a move to the right and the rejection of Obama and the Democrats in such swift fashion. The pundits suggested that the 24/7 news cycle and the anger of the American people were the reason for the quick shift in loyalties. Others made the point that the party in power lost in 2006 and 2008. Still others commented that this was not a shift to Republicans but a repudiation of both parties. And finally, many counted the Tea Party out due to the loss of key Senate seats that had been backed by the likes of Tea Party Express.
But let me offer a different view. The historic sweep and move to the Republican party was due to the confluence of three critical factors. First, there was already an undercurrent of dissatisfaction during the Bush presidency that fomented the tea party movement and conservative activism generally. This manifested itself in the election of a smooth talking Barak Obama and his promise to focus on the economy during his 2008 campaign. The fact that he moved left upon assuming the presidency simply allowed this dissatisfaction to burst forth in the form of the tea party movement.
Second, the grass roots activism by conservatives in 9/12 groups, the tea party movement and other patriot groups was critical to lighting the fire under the electorate. We co-opted the left's tactics, did them better and animated the electorate like few movements before it. The convergence of this activism and technology allowed for a truly democratic process of organizing that is still not well understood by pundits of the Democrat leadership.
Third, the state of the global economy, the invasion of our daily lives by government regulation and its playing to the lowest common denominator and the realization that progressive policies do not solve modern problems, gave lift to the wave that overtook the Democrats.
The fact that the sweep was to place Republicans in power again was not so much a love of the party as an expectation that the party would be able to refocus its actions on the core planks that embrace the conservative message of the tea party and America's heartland. In their 2008 Platform document, the Republican party stated their conservative bona fides. The ability to field third party candidates being a non-starter, the grass roots activists will hold them accountable to their representations. And while there has been some suggestion that the country will just as easily move left again, should the Republican party govern in a contrary manner, this outcome is less likely given the aforementioned redistricting and control of the state houses where the real work gets done.
Nonetheless, there is a desire to blunt the activism of the tea party movement. My sources suggest that Bill Clinton continues to work with Democrats to tamp down this energy by moving Obama to the center and tendering small "chits" to the Republicans early in their ascendancy to power.
- Specifically, there will be a "bi-partisan" call to extend the Bush tax cuts to show the largely conservative movement that Democrats are listening.
- There is likely to be a fix in the healthcare bill to include cross state pooling and some level of tort reform, critical issues that animated some of the anger during the bill passage earlier this year.
- There will be a focus on a real investment tax credit to create jobs. This tax credit will go directly to small business enabling them to take advantage of a friendlier tax regime and therefore be somewhat contented by yet another bi-partisan response to their concerns.
These few initiatives in conjunction with other outreach by Obama will be focused not on moving the dial as much as attempting to reduce the anger of the electorate by seeming to be responsive to their demands. And of course it will present the idea that Obama is moving more towards the center as a result of "hearing the great middle" after this election.
Now to be sure, Obama can't hire enough people in the Federal government to reduce unemployment and so these actions are not only about tamping down tea party activism. But as a strategy, they will be used as crumbs from the table to an electorate energized by these wins and as an attempt to placate those activists who may think some is better than none. However, being forewarned is forearmed. And while the Democrats continue to try to play this game, the reality is that this headless movement will continue to focus on the work at hand by holding these newly elected legislators accountable. The real work begins now and the change of the Republican party is underway. In fact, with 2012 looming and the presidential elections forthcoming, the tea party will be one gate that any candidate will need to pass through to be successful.
So as we continue to analyze this historic election, much will be made of the success and failures, of seats won and lost and of the mood of the electorate pre and post election. But in the end, it will be apparent that it's conservatives stupid! We have been fooled once and will not be fooled again. The changes voted upon at the state and federal level are so profound as to indicate that America rejects both the liberal Democratic party and the business as usual in Washington. The Republicans have been provided a solemn vote and offered the opportunity to govern as the people would have them. They must respect the planks of the party, listen to the people of this nation and reduce government's size, scope and spending. But most of all, they must regard the American people as their superiors. The real work begins!
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